Aut inveniam viam aut faciam – I shall either find a way or make one.
– Hannibal, 247-183 BC
Hannibal, was the Carthaginian general and statesman who fought against the Roman Republic during the Second Punic War. This was Hannibal’s famous response when his generals told him it was impossible to cross the Alps by elephant. Yet Hannibal did find a way – and in 218 BC invaded Italy by crossing the Alps with North African war elephants and occupied most of southern Italy for 15 years.
Route analysis is still essential today. Not only from a ground perspective but also the routes for maritime and aero. All follow similar paths because they make the most sense for that domain.
Likewise, when we look at the Cyber domain the key route is internet traffic flow though submarine cables. What many people do not realize is that over 90% of the world’s internet traffic is carried by these cables and is key to timely communication, finances, and national security. Most of these cables run along identical paths and in many key locations have just a few landing stations. For example, Singapore has 26 submarine cables across three landing sites. Couple this with the fact that submarine cables are cut or damaged on average 100-200 times a year, with limited cable repair capabilities, and the results can be catastrophic. In Jan-Feb 2008 multiple submarine cables cuts occurred in the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean regions that affected 60 million users in India, 12 million in Pakistan, six million in Egypt and 4.7 million in Saudi Arabia with disruptions in Afghanistan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Kuwait, Maldives, Qatar and United Arab Emirates. This vulnerability is not limited to accidents or natural events. In Feb 2024, Houthi rebels intentionally severed three undersea cables in the Red Sea that disrupted 25% of Europe and South Asia’s internet traffic dramatically demonstrating that even a small-scale attack can have far-reaching strategic effects.
America and our Allies especially rely on telecommunications networks, and we would suffer across all our instruments of National Power: Diplomatic, Informational, Military, and Economic. Looking ahead, we must assume that our submarine cables are going to be attacked whether by small groups like the Houthi, or by near-peer threats acting directly or through proxies.
So, what can we do?
While not able to solve the entirety of the problem, emerging satellite communications systems such as Low Earth Orbit (LEO) proliferated constellations are an important part of the solution. Along with Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO) and Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) constellations, these can form a resilient space fabric that can mitigate the impact of disrupted submarine cables. The development of High-Throughput Satellites and Optical Inter-satellite Links (laser communication between satellites) also offer high bandwidth throughput that can bypass terrestrial blockages.
Like Hannibal, we must either find a way or make one around this problem. We cannot wait for the attack. We must consider these emerging satellite communication capabilities as key parts of our Enterprise to mitigate this risk now. We can and must remain Unconquered!